Energy Policy, Vol.126, 452-469, 2019
Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices
This paper provides estimates of quantile regression models of the relationship between Italian day-ahead electricity prices, the supply of renewables and the inception of a new cable (SAPEI, linking Sardinia with the Italian peninsula), in the 2006-2015 time window. The results confirm the merit order effects detected in the existing literature, both for photovoltaics and wind power, more strongly in market conditions characterised by moderately low price levels and with some implied increase in volatility. The new cable has apparently challenged the ability of power generating companies to extract value through price spikes, has mitigated volatility, and its effects have been complementary with those of renewables. Effects from photovoltaics are more sensitive to robustness checks. Differences across zonal markets are nonetheless detected.